Rumored conciliation plan for Iran, but only if ordered by Khamenei

An insider’s view on what the plan really is about, as reported to Mik Verbrugge on Sepember 30, 2009

This Conciliation plan is a suggestion,it will only be acted upon by Expediency if and when SL orders Expediency to do so. Expediency council is SL’s very own council of experts, to whom he can grant/assign duties&powers. Originally, its role was to mediate disputes between the Guradian Council &Majlis. But its authorities were expanded. SL is following constitution by doing it. Contrary 2 wht many think, SL is not showing inability but finally showing action. Constitutional provisions accommodate situations in which SL can/should call upon Expediency Council to resolve grave impasses by helping SL as experts.
Expediency Council’s full name is Expediency Discernment Council of the System, which means “Assembly for defining/identifying good of regime” or “the ones who know best what’s good for the regime” (superseding Government)
So,expediency council will ultimately decide on exactly how to handle the situation, who to put on panels, etc. The Plan is only a suggestion.
It’s advertised as Rafsanjani’s plan, but he will actually mostly get to put it in motion and supervise its implementation.
On Monday Rafsanjani said he had had 3 meetings with Delsoozan (those who care – the writers of the plan) during which he said: “Everything I had to say, and my demands, were made perfectly clear during my Sermon (in July). If my demands are reflected in the document, I’ll gladly welcome it. However, I reserve my endorsement until a final draft is available and I can meet with them (Delsoozan) to discuss it.”
Panel membership is subject to negociations, even in draft. Each side is free to send their  own suggestions for members. The Arbitration Council members mentioned in the draft are subject to acceptance by all sides. It’s pretty leveled, and should be approved by all parties. This is really an attempt to avert chaos, not a distraction.
The thrust for this is obviously based on “Rafsanjani’s 5 point plan”(sermon), Khamenei and principlist appeasement concessions made to Marja and Reformists. Mousavi’s role being solidified as Head of opposition (radical Reform).
Of course, if Mousavi can’t substantiate any accusations of wrong-doing, he’d pay the price while damage is averted for moderate Reformists and/Traditionalists. But there’s enough evidence to implicate Ahmadinejad and his camp that thisis provision is a formality.
Everything gets investigated, publicized. Karroubi and Reformists are out of immediate line of fire, but can contribute to helping in taking down Government/coup.
Mousavi’s role will be to prove that elections were rigged, which is the central issue of the dispute.
For other crimes, National Security Panel’s Report implicates half of IRGC leaders & a lot of cabinet. SL’s classification of that Report didn’t make this go away. People know. The Motalefeh leak is out there.
It won’t get better than this.

Following are informations I got earlier, on the same subject:

– Leaked doc is an old draft from before sending 2 SL.

– Document written by a 6 people team but they consulted many others incl R (3 times).

– Hadad Adel is 1 of authors

– R didn’t like the threatening clauses against M,if he fails to produce proof. Likely excised from current draft

– As hd of expediency, R has right of veto, amendment. This is elegant : expediency is SLs advisory arm 4 such situations. So,constitutionally speaking, SL wld comply w his duty if he authorizes Expediency to take over.

– As far as (insider) knows,this will b subpanels of expediency,so its under R & Rezaei/Larijani/SL supervision anyway

– Whichever way conciliation plan plays out,Rs Conservative coalition wins.

– Plan writers : H.Asgaroladi, M.Mirsalim, M.Bahonar, M.Nabavi, H.Mozafar, Q.Hadad-Adel

– Hadad-Adel is a NeoCon, rest are TradCons & pretty much in R’s camp. But Hadad-Adel had a disagreement w AN & is angry w/him since before elex. He’s on board w/R out of spite. (whatever happened, he was among 5 Ministers who were reportedly not willing to participate in new Gov.)

– Absolute certainty : Elex-Fraud & crimes of AN & Coup r sufficiently documented, that enforcing this plan will doom AN because all will be put to test & publicized. Rafsanjani knows this, Mousavi too.

– Plan is by no means an effort of Reformists or Greens.It’s a purely conservative effort. Coalition isn’t doing this for or even supports green.They r fighting for their own advantage, which helps green out of pure coincidence.

– Plan recognizes all parties as legitimate, stops persecution/prosecution until all is investigated.

– Members from all factions in panel

ARBITRATION Panel members as suggested before SLs review :
Mahdavi Kanni, Shahroudi, Valayati, Aboutarabi-Fard, Doa’i, Hadad Adel, Rohani, Asgaroladi, Mohajeri.

INVESTIGATION panel : supposed to be largely centrists, w right&left;mmbrs included. Being negociated.

CONCILIATION panel members are still being negociated as well.

The arbitration panel will have final judgment in case of conflict between investigative & conciliation panels. It is composed of well known people, and is expected to help people regain trust in the institutions.

Of the names listed above, only neocon, again, Hadad-Adel, who is more of an opportunist than anything.

Mousavi has yet to choose representatives for his faction, currently rumored : Beheshti

Filed under: Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, Guardian Council, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, Montazeri, Rafsanjani, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran, Ahmedinejad, Basij, Dastgheib, Karroubi, Khamenei, Khatami, Montazeri, Rafsanjani, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi

Rafsanjani to step down from all his positions if Karroubi is arrested. Could the Haghani Circle be completed?

According to the website Etemadelli, Ayatollah Rafsanjani is reportedly saying that if Mehdi Karroubi is arrested, he will step down from his positions on the powerful Experts Council and Expediency Council.  This seems to be good news for Ahmedinejad and his allies, which have been trying to marginalize all the powerful clerics that disagree with their policies.  Another reason Ahmedinejad would love to see Rafsanjani go, is that Rafsanjani is the head of the two powerful bodies mentioned above.  His exit would mean leadership change in the councils.  First, the Experts Council, which would probably thrust Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi into the leadership postion, Ahmedinejad’s spiritual leader and one of the main architects of the stolen election.  Second, Ayatollah Jannati would probably take over the leadership of the Expediency Council.  He is currently head of the powerful Guardian Council and Co-founder of the Haghani schools along with Mesbah Yazdi.  This would give Ahmedinejad and company total control of the country.

The only reason Mehdi Karroubi probably hasn’t been arrested to this day, is likely this threat to resign by Rafsanjani.  It has been reported elsewhere that Khamenei has issued the arrest for Karroubi a couple of weeks ago.  The delay could mean that Khamenei knows if Rafsanjani leaves, many of the conservative clerics and possibly conservatives in general would separate from this government  all together and that would leave Khamenei out on a limb.  He would basically be impotent and be puppeted by Ahmedinejad, the Haghani’s and the IRGC.  This would also leave Mesbah Yazdi as the probable successor to Khamenei, should his health take a turn for the worse, or more ominously, meet an untimely demise.  The Haghani Circle would be complete.  What remains unclear, is why haven’t Ahmedinejad and Co. arrested Karroubi yet, they surely want to.  The answer will probably be forthcoming this week, as Qods day approaches.

DROI 

Filed under: Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, Guardian Council, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, Rafsanjani, ایران iran, Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, Council of Experts, Guardian Council, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, Khamenei, Rafsanjani, Revolutionary Guard, ایران iran

دستور حکومت برای بایکوت خبری کروبی و موسوی

http://tinyurl.com/nkjvvr

Filed under: iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, Khamenei, Revolutionary Guard, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran

Khamenei lays down the gauntlet

In his much anticipated Friday Prayer Sermon, Ayatollah Khamenei lifted the veil and revealed with much more clarity than previous statements on where he and his regime stand on many of the key issues regarding reform leaders, the regime forces, system tolerance and rebellion.  Of course, also threatened citizens not to abuse Qods Day for protesting.  Believing that he is following in the footsteps of Imam Ali and Ayatollah Khomeini, he said that he has been trying to guide all involved in these disputes, but that some refuse this guidance and are trying to damage the system.  The system is strong and it will fight back harshly. 

Here are some excerpts that we think are of most import:

 

“From the beginning of the revolution, as we were all together with each other, differences emerged.  Imam Khomeini did not deal with all these the same way, same as Ali.  Imam Khomeini first tried to guide them.  There were different people in the government back then.  There were people from the old bureaucracy, there were people who had just joined the government and then there were those who were using terror and protests to achieve their objectives.   He dealt with them all differently.”

He appears to be saying that he has been trying to guide those involved, and that they are not all on the same level.  They have and will be dealt with differently.  The reference to terror and protests seems to be pointed at Mousavi and Karroubi.

 

“These differences were emerged.  Some of them resulted in debates, but some became conflicts.  To those who were enemies of the religion, Imam Khomeini said that he would come to them personally.  But when came the time that some wanted to force wrong ideas upon the system, Imam Khomeini hit back firmly.”

Reference  to force wrong ideas must mean reformist ideas and that in following Khomeini’s path justifies the severe crackdown.

 

“Now those who are after personal gains, try to make it look as if they’re seeking something else.  But that’s when they become enemies of the system.  If someone has a different idea but does not try to attack the system, the system is fine with them.  Political ideologies that are different; we’re fine with them, as long as they don’t try to force it upon the system.  It’s not about having different ideas, but about attacking the Islamic system.  This what the system will fight against.”

 

Referencing “personal gain,”  We suspect he means Mir Hossein Mousavi and reform.  The regime  views reform as anathema to the Islamic system and a threat to its very existence.  Although YOU can have your ideas, just don’t question OURS.

 

However when some come up with entirely different foundations to rest the system upon, which is dangerous.  So long as they work inside the framework of the system as we said, so long as people don’t resort to violence, don’t lie or create tension, the system will not attack.  The system will tolerate them if they have a different opinion.   However, if some people comes with new pillars for the system and create insecurity for people, then the system needs to deal with them harshly.”

 

Referencing people in the first part of the statement, is most likely directed at protesters in an attempt to keep them in their homes and off the streets.  The second part, referencing some people, obviously directed at Mousavi , perhaps even Khatami and alike.  This probably means there will be arrests soon.

 

“We say people should have the right to be defended if they have been slandered or humiliated, then the system also has the right to defend itself.  Some say since the system is political, it should not defend itself.  This is not right.  Thus, the answer to any attacks on the system is going to be harsh.  But having a different opinion – when it doesn’t come with slander and lies , will be tolerated by the system.”

 

We believe he is saying much here.  First, many in the establishment have criticised the security forces and their leaders for their recent statements that they have every right to be involved in the politics as this is a very sensitive time.  Khamenei seems  not only to defend their position, but reassert it.  Second, we believe the reference to “slander and lies” is specifically targeting Mehdi Karroubi and “answering attacks on system is going to be harsh,” is a clear sign that the arrest of Mousavi is imminent. 

 

“Quds Day is for the Palestinians.  It is a show of unity of Iranians.  Be cautious, so that no one could use this day to create differences and rifts between us.  They couldn’t break our unity before and they cannot now.”

Here he seems to be trying to give himself distance from the violence  that will surely be inflicted on the people on Qods Day if they dare protest.  Although, anyone who protests will be seen as creating “differences” and “rifts” and “They couldn’t break our unity before and they cannot now,” obviously referencing the reason they couldn’t and will not, Basij and security forces. 

To sum up the sermon  in our view, we believe he has laid down the gauntlet;  Mousavi and Karroubi at minimum will be arrested soon (probably house arrest if history is any indication), the reform movement will no longer be tolerated and the purging will continue, security forces are integral to the survival of the system therefore, they have every right to inject themselves wherever and whenever needed, and lastly, protests and rebellion will be crushed.

 

Note:  Although we watched, listened and took notes to the speech ourselves, we used excerpts from the transcript of the website Anonymous Iran for our analysis.  Read the full transcript of Khamenei’s sermon courtesy of Anonymous Iran

Filed under: Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, ایران iran, Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, Khamenei, Khomeini, ایران iran

Karroubi and Mousavi offices raided, documents and disks confiscated

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iranian authorities closed down pro-reform cleric Mehdi Karoubi’s office on Tuesday, Iranian news agency ILNA reported, and a website said one of his top aides was detained.

Judiciary officials entered Karoubi’s office in northern Tehran and told him and others inside to leave, ILNA said, adding documents, discs and other material were seized.

“Karoubi’s office has been sealed off upon the Tehran prosecutor’s order,” it quoted Esmail Gerami-Moghaddam, a spokesman for Karoubi’s party, as saying. Karoubi came fourth in June’s disputed presidential election.

There was no immediate comment from Iranian officials.

Website mowjcamp.ir said agents raided and searched the home of Morteza Alviri and took him away. It also confirmed the closure of Karoubi’s office.

On Monday security forces raided an office run by allies of opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi, the election runner-up, and confiscated documents, his website said.

Mousavi’s website said it was the premises of a committee set up by him to look into post-election events, including the number of dead and the treatment of people detained during the huge opposition demonstrations that followed the vote.

Karoubi, whose newspaper was closed down three weeks ago, angered hardliners last month by saying some imprisoned protesters were raped and abused in jail.

The authorities have rejected the allegation as baseless but the judiciary and parliament have agreed to look into the issue.

By Fredrik Dahl and Reza Derakhshi

Filed under: Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran, Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, Khamenei, Martyrs, Revolutionary Guard, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran

Despite the growing pressure, opposition members seem determined to keep challenging the hard-liners.

Concern has grown that key figures who are seen as the leaders of the opposition movement could be arrested. They include former President Mohammad Khatami, presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, and the head of the Assembly of Experts, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

This concern has grown following recent comments by the head of the powerful Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

Jafari said on September 2 that senior reformist figures encouraged the massive street protests following the June 12 presidential vote and tried to undermine the authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate of power in the Islamic republic.

Former President Khatami, who is one of the figures named by Jafari, hit back on September 6, accusing the hard-liners of taking a “fascist” approach. He said the hard-liners destroyed “the biggest opportunity” that has come along for Iran and the Islamic establishment in the June 12 vote.

Mir Hossein Mousavi issued a new statement explaining how he envisions the future and the role that the “Green Path of Hope,” the movement that he is founding, can play in it. The strongly worded statement accuses hardliners of distorting Islam, violating the Constitution, destroying morality in society, and forgetting the ideals of the 1979 Revolution, the most important of which was political freedom for all.

Mehdi Karroubi will not relent in his quest for justice over the abuses and rapes of detainees.

One of the strongest criticisms has come from a lawmaker, Hossein Hashemian, the head of the Imam faction in the Iranian parliament, who said on September 6 that Jafari has become too proud of his military rank.

Hashemian said Jafari should be prosecuted for his comments, which he said go against the views of the founder of the Islamic republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Hashemian said Khomeini was against the interference of the military in politics.

Hashemian said Jafari has labeled figures who have held top posts in the Islamic establishment and served the system for the past 30 years as potential foes of the Islamic state.

Hashemian told the website “Parlemannews” that Jafari’s comments could be interpreted as an attempt to destroy Khomeini’s legacy. He added that Jafari, as a military figure, didn’t have the right to interfere in politics.

Two reformist political parties, the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Militant Clerics Association, have also blasted Jafari over his comments and said that he should be charged.The Militant Clerics Association said it had decided to file a legal compliant against Jafari for spreading lies and leveling accusations against some of its members.

The Participation Front, some of whose key members are on trial over the postelection unrest, said that Jafari’s comments could open room for more action against reformist leaders. The party said that Jafari’s comments and his access to forced confessions by reformists could be a confirmation of the Revolutionary Guard’s role in the June vote and reformists’ allegations that a coup has taken place.

The party says the judiciary should prove its independence by bringing one of its own to court — for the first time.

Also, opposition members are also planning to protest on September 18 during the annual “Quds Day,” when state-organized anti-Israel demonstrations usually take place. Millions of Iranians are anticpated to participate.

Filed under: Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, Karroubi, Rafsanjani, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran, Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, Kahrizak, Karroubi, Khamenei, Martyrs, Rafsanjani, Revolutionary Guard, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran

Security Forces Raid Mousavi’s Staff Office

Security forces raided Mir Hossein Mousavi’s office, which is headed by Ali Beheshti, and confiscated all documents and records pertaining to detainees on Monday. Perhaps in retaliation to the detailed report of the 72 documented murders by the regime released a few days ago. More on the story here….
http://tinyurl.com/mz4jeq

Filed under: Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran, Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, Khamenei, Martyrs, Revolutionary Guard, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran

Mousavi Outlines The Minimum The Hardliners Can Do To Get The Nation Out Of The Current Crisis.

Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a new statement explaining how he envisions the future and the role that the “Green Path of Hope,” the movement that he is founding, can play in it. The strongly-worded statement accuses Ayatollah Khamenei — without naming him — and the hardliners of distorting Islam, violating the Constitution, destroying morality in society, and forgetting the ideals of the 1979 Revolution, the most important of which was political freedom for all.

He then went on to list the minimum the hardliners could do to get the country out of the current crisis:

1. Forming a truth commission, one whose findings and verdicts are likely to be accepted by all sides, to investigate the violations of law, fraud during and after the election, and punishing those who were responsible.
2. Revising the election law in such a way that free and fair elections can be held.
3. Identifying and punishing those who were responsible for the crimes committed by all organs of the government, including military, police, and the media.
4. Helping those who have been hurt and injured after the elections, especially those who have lost loved ones; releasing from prison all the campaign workers and political activists; dismissing the bogus charges against them; restoring their credibility, and ending all the threats against them.
5. Putting into practice Article 168 of the Constitution by defining precisely what constitutes a political offense, and using a jury when the offenders are put on trial.
6. Guaranteeing freedom of the press, and changing the biased behavior of the Voice and Visage in order to eliminate all the limitations on its programs so that the political parties can use the Voice and Visage to express their positions regarding various issues, and revising the law that governs the Voice and Visage to make it responsive to people’s demands.
7. Putting to practice Article 44 of the Constitution regarding privatization so that private radio and television stations can also be created.
8. Guaranteeing the right of the people to gather and demonstrate by putting into effect Article 27 of the Constitution.
9. Passing legislation forbidding the military from intervening in political as well as economic affairs.

Read the full translation in english of Mousavi’s statement here…http://tinyurl.com/Tehran-Bureau

Filed under: Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, Guardian Council, iran election, Iran News, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran, Ahmedinejad, Ayatollahs, Basij, Guardian Council, iran election, Iran News, Kahrizak, Khamenei, Khomeini, Martyrs, Revolutionary Guard, میرحسین موسوی خامنه Mousavi, ایران iran

Grand Ayatollah Dastghieb Says Post Election Repression Has Tainted The Face Of Islam

Alittle over three weeks ago Ayatollah Dastghieb had called for an emergency meeting of the Khebregan (Assembly of Experts) to review the country’s crisis.

He has spoken again, and this time he has blasted the coup agents for the post election repression and asks how anyone who has been involved in the level of brutality inflicted upon the citizens can call themselves muslim.

More on the story here (farsi)….http://tinyurl.com/kp3raz

Filed under: Ayatollahs, iran election, Iran News, ایران iran, Ayatollahs, Basij, iran election, Iran News, Kahrizak, Khamenei, Khomeini, Martyrs, ایران iran